Friday, September 02, 2005

Spread; Predictions

Conference USA is 1-3 in games so far this year. 0-3 against I-A Competition.

As predicted, Eckert will start. He gets the majority of snaps in practice; he went to Conference USA media day. Bennett says it is close and both will play.

The line for Saturday against Baylor has been drifting down froma high of Baylor -4 to Baylor -1.5. The line itself is designed to promote the most betting possible. It is not a predictor of the actual outcome. However, barring a major injury, the line only moves to keep the betting relatively balanced on both sides. That could mean the majority of the money is moving in the direction of the Mustangs.

Unfortunately, while there is no major injury, the speculation is the line dropped because Baylor had a chunk of their team sit out with strep throat. This article bears that out. The line is unlikely to move again because of the few people betting on this game.

I'd love to not be in the prediction business. but here is the official season prediction. Four wins-Baylor (yes, Baylor); Rice; ECU; and Tulsa. That is what my head tells me. Something keeps telling me SMU will win five games, but I have no idea why. And since I can't point out the game that I think they will win, I won't. I could say the Tulane game, but right now, I don't know if there will be a Tulane game or what kind of team that will be.

And four wins is enough for Bennett to keep his job. Yeah. But I wonder what happens if the total is three? Then it is decision time.


JudgeChamber said...

I guess it's decision time.

SMUstang said...

5 wins and Phil keeps his job.

JudgeChamber said...

He'll get 4.