Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Worst Case Scenario

I really didn't want to do a worst case scenario, but I figured that I did one last year and also, if I did a best case, I ought to do a worst case as well. So, here you go.

As an aside, where SMU needs to be is where last year's results of 5-6 is the worst case scenario. I continue to believe that with some effort, SMU can get there.

Just like last year, we could go 0-12!!! Oh, no. WE SUCK AGAIN!!!. Now that that is out of the way, let’s take a look at the realistic worst case scenario for the upcoming season. Now, like the best case scenario, is this my prediction? No. Of course, not.

Let’s leave injuries, suspensions, etc. out of the discussions for the moment. What is the worst SMU can expect?

• Sep. 2-at Texas Tech
I can’t say it any other way, if SMU won this game, I would be shocked. Blowout. 0-1

• Sep. 9-at North Texas
Let’s be honest. SMU has been ducking UNT for several years. Why? Because SMU wasn’t very good. UNT has been begging to play SMU; UNT has a chip on his shoulder. It is an emotional win for UNT. 0-2

• Sep. 16-Sam Houston State
Can I imagine a scenario where Sam Houston State wins? Yes. But it won’t happen. I repeat, it won’t happen. I-A teams that play against I-AA teams win 89% of the time. 1-2

• Sep. 23-Arkansas State
Let’s not forget Arkansas State won the Sunbelt last year and went to a bowl game. 1-3

• Sep. 30-at Tulane
An emotional and revved up Tulane squad thumps a demoralized SMU squad int eh first football game in the Superdome post-Katrina. 1-4

• Oct. 7-at UTEP
A revenge game for a superior UTEP squad against the team that kept them out of the C-USA title game. 1-5

• Oct. 14-Marshall
• Loss.
A repeat of last year’s disappointing last minute loss. 1-6

• Oct. 21-at East Carolina
• Loss.
A repeat of last year’s disappointing defeat. 1-7.

• Oct. 31-UAB
• Loss.
Revenge game part II; with a vengeance. 1-8

• Nov. 11-Houston
• Loss.
Revenge game, Part III: Revenge Harder. 1-9

• Nov. 18-Tulsa
If you have been paying attention, SMU is undefeated in CUSA, which leads to a showdown against Tulsa. SMU plays it close but loses 33-28. 1-10.

• Nov. 25-at Rice
Rice may win a game or two, but not this one. In a scrimmage last weekend, they still ran the ball 70% of the time. There simply isn’t the personnel to put in Todd Graham’s offense. I expect a score much like the 2005 game. 2-10

Again, is this my prediction? No, and don’t pretend it is. In fact, really the idea that there would be only two wins is mind boggling. In truth, I think the worst case scenario is three wins; I just couldn’t identify a third team I was sure SMU would win. But, hey, looking at last year’s worst case scenario, I predicted a win over ECU. Eeeeee.

I’ll just say it. I like Phil Bennett a lot, but the only question if the season played out this way, is between which two games would Phil Bennett be asked to leave. Expectations are high; this result would be unacceptable. And extremely unlikely.

The real prediction tomorrow.


JudgeChamber said...

Just thought I would drop a note.

Love your blog, I think you do a fantastic job with it. I've stolen (borrowed?) some of your ideas, but I've tried to give you credit whenever I do so.

Anyway, keep up the good work. This is one Baylor fan that is pulling for SMU to get to a bowl game this year.

JudgeChamber said...

Just thought you might want to know that UNT made the Bottom 10 waiting list, but SMU wasn't mentioned.

Maybe UNT is more of a sure-win than you think!?